Since my last post, various indices have come down 12-15%. Some individual stocks are down considerably more. While I would love to claim prescience, the rapidity of the decline was due to luck more than anything else, and I have no illusions about my ability to predict…
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After some thought, I’ve decided to exit most of my stock positions in the USA except for one relatively small and extremely unpopular company that…
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Here is a simple thought experiment: In 2021, US venture capital backed companies raised $330B, roughly $180B above the average of 2018-2020 (source) VC…
The biggest challenge for me right now is maintaining a strict valuation discipline, with a focus on individual companies and margin of safety, while…
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Margin of safety, objective ignorance, uncertainty
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Notes to self
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And its impact on cash flows and valuations
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In 2021, my portfolio returned 21.16% and the S&P 500 index returned 28.71%. Cash holdings averaged 60.75% for the year. Personal Performance vs. S&P…
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This Time Is Different