I don’t have much new to say, but thought I’d jot down a quick update, if only to emphasize that nothing much has changed on my end, and to commit my predictions down for future humbling.
My $.02, which is probably worth at least a nickel, is that you are right. This looks a lot more like end of `1999 or the beginning of 2000. There are a bunch of AI companies raising money, the majority of which will end up like Pets.com. In 2000, 10-year TIPs bonds had nearly 4% coupon, so they were a much better option than today's TIPs with <2% yield. But compared to "return free risk (Buffett's description of bonds circa 2015) bonds are least paying a positive real return.
AI will eventually change everything, but techie always overestimate technology adoption so I think a 10-30 years adoption is more likely than 3-10 years people are talking about.
The combo of very old bull market, an insane president, excessive US debt, and aging world, means that future returns are far likely to be much poorer in the next decade than the last 25 years. Vanguard is projects equity returns in 4-6.5% rate over the next decade. Good time to be cautious.
Thanks, Clif! Appreciate your comments and perspective.
Agree with your thoughts about AI, too. I think the technology is impressive (and I hardly use Google search anymore), but the practical benefits have been oversold, at least in the near term.
My $.02, which is probably worth at least a nickel, is that you are right. This looks a lot more like end of `1999 or the beginning of 2000. There are a bunch of AI companies raising money, the majority of which will end up like Pets.com. In 2000, 10-year TIPs bonds had nearly 4% coupon, so they were a much better option than today's TIPs with <2% yield. But compared to "return free risk (Buffett's description of bonds circa 2015) bonds are least paying a positive real return.
AI will eventually change everything, but techie always overestimate technology adoption so I think a 10-30 years adoption is more likely than 3-10 years people are talking about.
The combo of very old bull market, an insane president, excessive US debt, and aging world, means that future returns are far likely to be much poorer in the next decade than the last 25 years. Vanguard is projects equity returns in 4-6.5% rate over the next decade. Good time to be cautious.
Thanks, Clif! Appreciate your comments and perspective.
Agree with your thoughts about AI, too. I think the technology is impressive (and I hardly use Google search anymore), but the practical benefits have been oversold, at least in the near term.